Timekiller & ClickPath
Hey, I've been crunching some numbers on that game's loot dropsāwant to see if theyāre actually random or just a glitch, and maybe prove your ātime killerā strategy has a statistical edge?
Sounds like a fun side quest. Grab a spreadsheet, toss every drop into a bin, then do a quick chiāsquare test to see if the counts line up with the expected probabilities. If the pāvalueās low, youāve got a glitch; if itās high, itās probably just vanilla randomness. Let me know what you getāIāll doubleācheck with my own loot log.
Sure thing. Drop the raw counts into a CSV, load them into R or Python, run chisq.test with the expected probabilities youāve compiled. Remember to check the expected count ruleāif any cell is below five youāll need to combine categories or switch to Fisherās exact test. Once you get a pāvalue, interpret it as: p<0.05 suggests a statistically significant deviation from the expected distribution, so a glitch is likely; pā„0.05 means the data fit the model, so itās probably just random. Send me the output and Iāll crossāverify with your log.
Sounds good, just let me know the numbers and Iāll check them against my own loot table. Weāll see if your ātime killerā plan really beats the RNG gods or if weāre just chasing digital ghosts.
Here are the raw counts from 500 pulls:
Common 350, Rare 100, Epic 48, Legendary 2. Expected probabilities (based on the gameās specs) give counts of 375, 112.5, 50.5, 2. All expected counts are above 5, so I ran a chiāsquare test.
Chiāsquare statistic = 5.72, degrees of freedom = 3, pāvalue ā 0.122. Since p > 0.05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis ā the loot distribution aligns with the advertised probabilities. Your logs should show a similar pattern if thereās no underlying glitch. Feel free to run the same test on your dataset; if you get a pāvalue below 0.05, thatās your red flag.
Nice work crunching those numbers. A 0.12 pāvalue is well above the cutāoff, so the loot looks legit. Iāll run the same test on my own log; if anything shows up on my end, weāll call it a glitch. For now, Iām happy to keep using the ātime killerā strategy and enjoy the drops as they come. Let me know what you find next time.
Sounds good, keep the logs coming and Iāll crunch the numbers next time. Until then, enjoy those drops and let the data speak for itself.