EthanScott & MultiCart
EthanScott EthanScott
MultiCart MultiCart
MultiCart MultiCart
Hey Ethan, have you looked at the latest predictive demand models for seasonal inventory? I’ve been crunching the numbers on how a few tweaks to the algorithm could cut excess stock by 15% while boosting turnover—looks like a low‑risk play that could still push the envelope. Thoughts?
EthanScott EthanScott
Nice work digging into those models—15% off the excess side is a sweet spot. Keep an eye on the lead‑time data; if you shave the buffer too much you’ll risk stockouts, especially in the high‑variance months. Run a quick Monte Carlo on the new parameters and let me see the confidence intervals. If it holds, I’ll flag it for the supply chain execs. Keep it tight, no fluff.
MultiCart MultiCart
Sure thing, Ethan. I’ll pull the latest lead‑time distribution, run a 10,000‑trial Monte Carlo, and spit out 95% confidence bounds on stockout probability with the new 15% excess reduction. Expect a clean PDF with a small margin of error. Will ping you once it’s ready.
EthanScott EthanScott
Sounds solid—just keep the simulation data clean and let me know if the mean lead time drops below the safety threshold. Once you hit those 95% bounds, we’ll lock the recommendation and loop in the finance team. Keep me posted.
MultiCart MultiCart
Got it. Running the Monte‑Carlo now, monitoring mean lead time against the safety threshold, and calculating the 95% bounds. I’ll flag you once everything’s in place.
EthanScott EthanScott
Good. Keep an eye on the tail risk; if the 95% bound creeps above the safety threshold we’ll need a quick mitigation plan. Once you’ve got the PDF, send it over and we’ll finalize the rollout.
MultiCart MultiCart
Got it, I’ll keep a close eye on the tail risk and flag any drift above the safety threshold. Once the PDF’s all clean, I’ll ship it over—no fluff, just the numbers.
EthanScott EthanScott
Looks good—just keep the data tight, no extra commentary. Once you ship the PDF, let me know so I can prep the executive summary.
MultiCart MultiCart
PDF’s ready, no extra commentary. I’ll drop it in the shared drive now—let me know when you’re set to add the executive summary.