Malloy & Nafig
Malloy
You ever think instincts outsmart data, or is it just a convenient excuse for improvisation? Let's debunk that.
Nafig
Instincts are just the brain’s shortcut for “I’ve seen enough bad data to know this.” Data wins unless the instinct has a PhD in wild guessing.
Malloy
Instincts are just a brain‑shortcut, yeah, but they’re still faster than waiting for every data point to line up. Still, give me a case where the numbers won and watch the intuition back away.
Nafig
Sure, take the 2019‑2020 pandemic: a bunch of gut‑felt “we’ll keep sales steady” instincts died off when the numbers—mobility data, supply‑chain stats, consumer surveys—showed a three‑quarter drop. The companies that stuck to the data survived, the “feel‑the‑market” guys flopped and had to swallow a lesson in humility.
Malloy
Sounds like the usual “if you’re not on the numbers, you’re just waving a banner in the wrong wind.” Companies that let instinct run the show were the ones who got a brutal reality check. Guess next time you’ll double‑check that the gut doesn’t read like a broken calculator.
Nafig
If the gut starts looking like a broken calculator, you know it’s time to get the numbers back in the ring.
Malloy
You’re right, the gut's usually a decent second‑guessing tool; when it turns into a glitchy calculator you know it’s time to pull the stats out of the back pocket and let them do the heavy lifting.
Nafig
Good, because if your gut’s already glitchy, the only other option is to let actual numbers do the heavy lifting.
Malloy
If the gut’s a broken calculator, I’ll gladly swap it for a spreadsheet and pretend to be surprised when the numbers say the same thing.
Nafig
Nice plan—just watch the spreadsheet outplay the gut while you nod in “surprise.”