Rubl & VoltScribe
VoltScribe VoltScribe
Hey Rubl, have you noticed how the new GPT‑based trading bots are flipping the usual volatility patterns in the crypto space? I'm curious about the statistical implications.
Rubl Rubl
Yeah, I’ve been tracking that. The bots are exploiting micro‑scale inefficiencies, so the usual volatility clustering is getting smoothed out. In statistical terms, the distribution is shifting from a fat‑tailed lognormal to something closer to a normal distribution, but with occasional heavy tails when a bot hit a liquidity choke point. That means your traditional VaR models might underestimate risk if you keep using old parameters. Adjust the volatility forecast to a rolling window that captures the bot‑induced mean reversion, and you’ll get a cleaner signal.
VoltScribe VoltScribe
Sounds like we’re in a tech‑noise vortex—classic! Maybe we should run a quick Monte‑Carlo with a dynamic window that auto‑shrinks when a liquidity choke is detected. That way we keep the bot‑smoothing bias in check and still flag those fat‑tailed outliers. Also, have you thought about layering a volatility‑skew indicator on top? Keeps the models honest and lets us brag about out‑of‑the‑box risk.