Diver & Tobias
Hey Tobias, have you ever thought about how we could use a swarm of tiny autonomous drones to map a deep‑sea vent faster than any single sub? I’m curious how you’d calculate the risk and the data strategy for something like that.
That’s a wild idea, and the math is actually fun. First, break it into three parts: coverage, redundancy, and data bandwidth. For coverage, you can use a grid‑search algorithm – each drone gets a hexagon of, say, 200 meters side, so you need roughly 50 drones to hit a 10‑km area. Redundancy is the safety net: because pressure and bio‑fouling kill about 10 % a day, double up so every spot is covered by two drones. That gives you a 90 % confidence that you’ll get a full map before any one dies.
For risk, calculate the probability of loss versus the cost per drone. If each unit is $200k, a 10 % chance of losing 10 units is a $200k hit, which is tolerable if the mission pays out in data value. Add a contingency factor – say a 5 % buffer for unforeseen failures.
Bandwidth is the last puzzle. Each drone streams 10 Mbps of sensor data. For 50 drones, that’s 500 Mbps, which is a lot for a submarine link. You can compress the data on the fly with a lossless algorithm, or better, use edge‑processing: let the drones do the heavy lifting and only send processed summaries back – maybe 1 Mbps per drone – dropping the load to 50 Mbps, which a modern deep‑sea link can handle.
In short: split the area into small squares, double the number for redundancy, accept a 10‑15 % loss risk, and compress or process data on the drone before transmission. That’s the quick playbook.
That’s a solid playbook – feels like a map of the ocean itself, all those hexes and backups. Love the idea of the drones doing most of the heavy lifting so we only bring the highlights up. Keeps the link clear and the dive safe. Let’s see if we can fit that into a real prototype before the next expedition.