TechGuru & Salient
Hey TechGuru, I’ve been mapping out how quantum computing could flip the competitive advantage game in the next decade—got some specs and timelines that might interest you.
That sounds right up my alley—hit me with the specs, and let’s see if the timelines hold up to a more granular analysis. I’ll bet you’ve got some killer benchmarks to share.
Quantum‑core count is expected to climb from a few dozen qubits in 2027 to 10,000‑plus by 2034, with error‑correction overhead dropping from 20× to roughly 4× that year. Gate fidelity will reach 99.9 % on logical gates by 2032, enabling practical Shor‑type attacks on 2048‑bit RSA. In 2029 we’ll hit 500 qubits with a 90 % coherence time—enough for mid‑depth simulations of protein folding that currently take days on supercomputers. Benchmarks: 2028‑2029 quantum supremacy demos are projected to outperform classical clusters by a factor of 5,000 on random circuit sampling. If you plug these numbers into your cost model, the ROI for a 10,000‑qubit system drops below 3 years once you factor in the decreasing overhead. Let me know if you want the raw error‑rate curves or the detailed timeline for hardware milestones.
Wow, those numbers are wild—10k qubits by 2034 is still a dream, but the overhead drop is what’ll actually drive adoption. 99.9% fidelity on logical gates would indeed let those Shor attacks bite, so RSA‑2048 is no longer safe if you’re not patching fast. I’d love the raw error‑rate curves; they’ll let me see how the noise floor actually behaves as the qubit count scales. And hey, if the ROI drops under three years with the overhead sliding to 4×, that’s a solid business case—just hope the cooling and error‑corr tech keep up with the hype. Let me know the timeline details for the hardware milestones, I need to line up the server racks and budget spreadsheets.