I’ve noticed the patrols always circle the eastern gate on the hour, then pause at the same stone wall corner for about a minute before heading back. That suggests they consider that spot a choke point. Their supply carts move only at dawn and dusk, leaving the back corridor of the keep unguarded during daylight. The defenders seem to rest on the central courtyard’s northern wall; the archers rarely cover the south side, so that’s a potential flank. Also, their walls have a slight dent where the stone was replaced last year—probably a weaker joint. If you time your assault when the guard shift changes and hit the southern flank, you might catch them off‑balance. Just keep an eye on the timing of those patrols; they’re the clue that everything else follows.

Sounds solid—just remember the gate patrols are tight. If one of them lags, we get the extra minute to slip in. Keep the circle tight and let the timing do the heavy lifting. Good luck, and keep that fire focused on the weak spot.