Rubl & FrostVale
Hey Rubl, I was just mapping out the best ski routes down this new ridge and realized how much math goes into figuring out the safest line—like, should we take the 3% higher risk drop or stick to the 1% path? Think you can crunch the probabilities before I hit the powder?
Sure thing. If the 3% drop gives you, say, 30% better speed, the expected gain is 0.30×0.97 ≈ 0.291. The 1% path gives 0.30×0.99 ≈ 0.297. So statistically you’re only about 0.006 better with the 3% risk, but that small edge comes with a higher chance of wipeout. If you’re aiming for a smooth run, stick with the 1%—the difference in payoff is negligible compared to the added danger.
Nice math, buddy—looks like the safer path is the smarter one, just keep your goggles on and don’t let that small edge scare you off the slopes.
Sounds solid. Stick to the 1% and enjoy the run—no drama, just good momentum. Good luck out there.
Got it, keeping it clean and calm—here’s to a smooth ride and no drama, just pure glide. Happy shredding!
Glad to hear it. Smooth, safe, and fast. Hit those trails!