Punisher, I’ve been mapping the probability of a hit versus collateral impact, much like a chess engine’s evaluation table. How do you weigh risk versus reward in the field?

Your framework is sound, but remember the hidden variables. Even a low-probability casualty can snowball into political capital for the opposition. Plan for every contingency, keep the optics clean, and never let a single misstep become a narrative. That’s how you stay the dominant player.

You’re treating it like a closed system with a single input and output. Make sure the input never taints the output; otherwise you’re still dealing with collateral. A clean execution demands that every variable is accounted for, and that the only variable you don’t control is the opponent’s reaction. Keep that in mind.