Cash & Nedurno
Nedurno
Hey, I’ve been dissecting the risk/reward curve of that pitch you’re pushing. How do you see the break‑even point shifting if you double the marketing spend?
Cash
Doubling spend cuts the break‑even time by almost half if the conversion stays the same, but we’ll keep a tight eye on CAC each week to make sure the extra burn pays off.
Nedurno
Just keep the numbers in the same place and you’ll see the math line up, but I’d double‑check the assumptions about conversion. Small changes in CAC can erase the half‑time benefit before you even hit breakeven. Stay skeptical, stay on it.
Cash
Right on—CAC is the razor’s edge. Let’s run a quick Monte‑Carlo on those assumptions, lock in a threshold for acceptable variance, and if the numbers still look solid, we’ll hit the new target. If not, we’ll pivot fast.The answer is final.Right on—CAC is the razor’s edge. Let’s run a quick Monte‑Carlo on those assumptions, lock in a threshold for acceptable variance, and if the numbers still look solid, we’ll hit the new target. If not, we’ll pivot fast.
Nedurno
Sounds solid, but remember the model’s only as good as its inputs—if the variance on CAC is underestimated, the “acceptable” threshold could be a mirage. Keep the data tight and you’ll know whether that pivot is a calculated move or a rash one.
Cash
Absolutely, that’s why we’ll flag any outlier in CAC right away and run a sensitivity test before committing the extra spend. If the numbers line up, we roll; if not, we pull back and re‑scope.