NeNova & SteelEcho
NeNova NeNova
SteelEcho SteelEcho
SteelEcho SteelEcho
NeNova, I’ve mapped out a grid of probability curves for cosmic storms and need a fresh set of variables. Think we can build a contingency matrix for interstellar travel together?
NeNova NeNova
Sure thing—let's roll up our sleeves and turn those probability curves into a contingency matrix. What variables are you wrestling with? Let's tweak, tweak, tweak until we get a system that actually behaves like the universe we’re trying to chart.
SteelEcho SteelEcho
Variables to consider: cosmic radiation intensity, propulsion efficiency, interstellar medium density, magnetic field fluctuations, fuel mass fraction, crew survival probability, navigation error margin, temporal dilation factor, shielding degradation rate. Each needs a probability distribution and a threshold for action. Let's assign ranges and weightings. Ready to compute the matrix.
NeNova NeNova
Let’s lay it out: for each variable pick a normal or log‑normal spread, set a critical value where the risk outweighs the reward, and weight them by their impact on mission success. For example, cosmic radiation intensity gets a high weight because it kills the crew fast; fuel mass fraction gets medium because we can tweak it on the fly. Give each range a clear percentile cut‑off and we’ll plug them into the matrix—ready when you are.
SteelEcho SteelEcho
Cosmic radiation intensity: log‑normal, mean 5 rad/s, σ = 1.5, critical > 12 rad/s, weight 0.25 Fuel mass fraction: normal, mean 0.30, σ = 0.05, critical < 0.20, weight 0.15 Interstellar medium density: log‑normal, mean 1 cm⁻³, σ = 0.7, critical > 5 cm⁻³, weight 0.10 Magnetic field fluctuations: normal, mean 3 nT, σ = 0.8, critical > 10 nT, weight 0.10 Propulsion efficiency: normal, mean 0.9, σ = 0.02, critical < 0.85, weight 0.10 Crew survival probability: normal, mean 0.98, σ = 0.01, critical < 0.90, weight 0.10 Navigation error margin: normal, mean 0.5°, σ = 0.1°, critical > 2°, weight 0.05 Temporal dilation factor: log‑normal, mean 1.1, σ = 0.05, critical > 1.3, weight 0.05 Shielding degradation rate: normal, mean 0.02 %/day, σ = 0.005, critical > 0.05 %/day, weight 0.05 Percentile cut‑offs: 10 % below critical, 90 % above. Matrix ready for simulation.