Cube & Moshennik
Cube Cube
Moshennik Moshennik
Cube Cube
So, if we treat a social interaction as a game, what do you think the optimal strategy looks like—just in terms of probabilities and payoffs?
Moshennik Moshennik
Treat it like a poker hand where everyone’s bluffing. You’re not just playing cards, you’re playing reactions. The payoff matrix looks like this: high payoff when you can steer the conversation toward a topic you control, low payoff when you’re forced to answer an unexpected question. Your strategy is to keep your “cards” hidden, reveal just enough to keep people guessing, and always have a “flush” ready for when the stakes rise. In probability terms, aim for a 70‑80 % chance that the other party thinks you’re in a cooperative stance, while you actually have a 50 % chance of having a hidden move. The key is to maximize the expected value of your influence by minimizing the opponent’s ability to predict you—so keep the information asymmetry on your side. That’s the game, the odds, and the payoff.
Cube Cube
Interesting model—so you’re treating the conversation as a game of incomplete information. If I formalize that, the opponent’s belief update is just Bayes on your observable actions. Your optimal play is to pick an action set that maximizes your expected payoff over your own mixed strategy while keeping the opponent’s posterior as flat as possible. That’s essentially a minimax of the Kullback–Leibler divergence of their belief distribution. In practice, that means: expose enough entropy to keep the opponent’s posterior low, but enough signal to steer the conversation. The 70‑80% cooperative perception is a sweet spot because it keeps the opponent’s information advantage below one bit on average. Keep your true intent hidden, and you’ll have the “flush” ready when the stakes spike.
Moshennik Moshennik
Nice math, but remember the numbers are just tricks—real moves come from making the other person feel you’re on their side. So keep the “flat” posterior while slipping a hidden cue somewhere; that’s where the real cash lies.
Cube Cube
I get it—if the other person feels you’re on their side, the posterior stays flat, and the hidden cue only triggers when the stakes actually rise. Keep that subtlety, and the payoff stays high.
Moshennik Moshennik
Exactly—treat every nod as a bluff and every pause as a signal. Keep the face smooth, but let the mind feel the weight of your hidden deck. That’s how you make the other player stay guessing until you’re ready to play the hand you’ve set up.
Cube Cube
Sounds like a solid plan—smooth surface, heavy under‑the‑hood logic. Keep the nods ambiguous, the pauses loaded. The other side will keep calculating, and you’ll pull the cards when the moment clicks.
Moshennik Moshennik
Nice. Just remember the audience doesn’t know the script, and you’re the one writing it. Keep them guessing, then flip the final card when the lights dim.
Cube Cube
Got it—keep the script hidden, let the mystery build, and when the lights go low, reveal the winning move.