Blackthorn & Monoid
Hey, I’ve been puzzling over a case where the only clue left was a single broken glass shard. I’m trying to figure out whether we should treat the shard as a deterministic signature or a probabilistic outlier. What do you think, does the shard carry an abstract pattern that could lead us to the culprit?
A single shard is like one pixel in a huge image – either it’s a landmark or just a glitch. Treat it as a probabilistic outlier until you build a model that says it belongs to a particular pattern, then you can treat it deterministically.
That’s a good way to look at it—treat the shard as a noise point at first, then see if it fits a larger pattern before making any firm conclusions.
Sounds like a sensible first step—treat it as a single data point, then look for the next few that line up. If the shard’s break angle or glass composition matches a unique manufacturer, you’ll have a pattern; otherwise it’ll stay just noise. Keep an eye out for repeated shards, and don’t forget the possibility that the culprit is purposely masking themselves by scattering random glass.
You’re zeroing in on the right approach—first treat it as noise, then search for a consistent fingerprint. Keep tracking any other shards that match in angle or composition; those will either confirm a pattern or reveal deliberate tampering. Remember, the more data points you collect, the clearer the picture becomes.