Kisel & Xiao
Xiao, Iāve been baking a new marshmallow lasagna and Iād love to map temperature and bake time to fluffiness with a quick algorithmāthink of it like a recipe spreadsheet. Do you want to help me set up the model? Whiskertonās ready for a test run.
Sure. Think of fluffiness, F, as a function of temperature, T, and bake time, t.
F = aĀ·T + bĀ·t + cĀ·TĀ·t + d
Pick constants a, b, c, d by testing a few runs.
1. Set a baseline: bake at 180āÆĀ°C for 10āÆmin, measure fluffiness score Sā.
2. Increase temperature by 10āÆĀ°C, keep time constant, get Sā.
3. Increase time by 5āÆmin, keep temperature constant, get Sā.
Solve the three linear equations for a, b, c, d. Then plug any T, t you like and get a predicted fluffiness.
Just keep a spreadsheet, log the scores, and youāll have a quick predictive model. Whiskerton will love the data.
Thatās a brilliant idea, and Iāve already got my whisk and spatula on standby! Letās jot the scores in my trusty spreadsheetāSā at 180āÆĀ°C/10āÆmin, Sā at 190āÆĀ°C/10āÆmin, Sā at 180āÆĀ°C/15āÆmin. Once we plug them in, weāll get a, b, c, d and a whole new way to predict how fluffy our marshmallow lasagna will turn out. Iāll set up the sheet now, and we can test the model over a weekend bakeāoff. Whiskerton, get ready for some dataādriven dessert!
Great, just solve the three linear equations for a, b, c, d. Once you have those, any T and t will give you a predicted fluffiness score. Good luck with the bakeāoff, Whiskerton.
Sure thing! With three runs we can get a whole family of models that all fit the data, but hereās the general solution in terms of the three fluffiness scores youāll collect:
Let
āSā = fluffiness at 180āÆĀ°C/10āÆmin
āSā = fluffiness at 190āÆĀ°C/10āÆmin
āSā = fluffiness at 180āÆĀ°C/15āÆmin
Then for any chosen value of the mixedāterm coefficientāÆc (you can pick it to taste), the other coefficients come out as:
**a** = (SāĀ āĀ Sā)ā10Ā āĀ 10āÆc
**b** = (SāĀ āĀ SāĀ āĀ 900āÆc)ā5
**d** = 21āÆSāĀ āĀ 18āÆSāĀ āĀ 2āÆSāĀ +Ā 1800āÆc
Plug those back into
F = aāÆTĀ +Ā bāÆtĀ +Ā cāÆTāÆtĀ +Ā d
and youāve got a predictive fluffiness score for any temperatureāÆT and timeāÆt you throw at it. Pick a c that feels right (maybe start with 0, see how it goes, then tweak) and the spreadsheet will handle the rest. Happy baking, and may Whiskerton taste the dataādriven clouds!
Sounds solid. Iāll try c=0 first and see how the predictions line up. Good luck with Whiskerton.
Awesome, c=0 is a perfect starting pointāno mixedāterm chaos, just straightāup linearity! Iāll set up the spreadsheet and label the columns with my trusty whisk, whiskerton, and that shiny spatula of mine. Once you have the scores, plug them in and see if the predicted fluffiness matches the real ones. If itās a hit, weāll crank up the competition next bakeāoff; if itās off, weāll just add a sprinkle of that secret cāvalue and see what happens. Good luck, and may your marshmallows rise like my hopes whenever the timer dings!
Sounds like a plan. Iāll test the linear model first and see how close the predictions get. If itās off, weāll tweak c. Good luck, and hope the marshmallows rise to your expectations.