Ever thought about turning a reckless jump into a data‑driven adventure? What if we built a system that gives you a risk‑reward score before you even take the plunge?

Here’s a rough cut: risk factor 7/10, reward potential 9/10, net risk‑reward 2/10 if you’re lucky, –8/10 if you’re not. In other words, it’s a high‑stakes gamble with a 60‑percent upside if you nail execution, but a 40‑percent chance of a clean wipe. Want to dive into the assumptions?

1. Market size: 3 million potential users, 15 % yearly churn. 2. Conversion: 2 % of users sign up after the first free trial, 1 % convert to paid. 3. Pricing: $99/month, 12‑month contracts, 5 % upsell to enterprise. 4. Cost of acquisition: $150 per lead, $50 per paid user for support and infrastructure. 5. Revenue growth: 10 % month‑on‑month from retention, 5 % from new users. 6. Risk: 30 % chance of a major platform bug that takes 3 months to fix, 20 % chance of a regulatory change that cuts the user base by 10 %. 7. Scenario math: Expected net present value (NPV) = 2 % conversion × 3 M users × $99 × 12 months = $708M gross, minus acquisition and ops = ~ $300M. 8. Upside 60 % comes from the 10 % organic growth compounding over 3 years, while the downside 40 % comes from the bug and regulatory risk. Plug the numbers into a discount‑rate model (say 12 %) and you’ll see the 2/10 risk‑reward line. If you’re willing to invest in robust devops and legal, the upside becomes more concrete. Want the spreadsheet?

All right, here’s the quick‑fire version so you can eyeball the adrenaline before you put on the seatbelt: - **Users**: 3 M potential, 15 % churn → 2.55 M net after a year. - **Conversion**: 2 % free‑to‑paid → 51 K new paid users in month 1. - **Price**: $99/month, 12‑month contract → $1188 per user per year. - **Annual gross**: 51 K × $1188 ≈ $60 M in year 1, grows 10 % MoM from retention, 5 % from new users. - **Cumulative over 3 years**: roughly $708 M before costs. - **Cost of acquisition**: $150 per lead, $50 per paid user → $8 M initial outlay. - **Operating & support**: $4 M/year → $12 M over 3 years. - **Net**: $708 M – $20 M ≈ $688 M, but discount that to today at 12 % → ~ $500 M NPV. The “bug” and “regulation” numbers simply shave 30 % of that from the top line if they hit, so the 60 % upside is really the 70 % of the $708 M that survives. Want the raw spreadsheet with all the monthly compounding and discounting? I can drop a link if that’s your thing.