Dirk & Extremum
Dirk
I was thinking about how you could use a bit of math to find the exact point where a high‑risk stunt becomes a probability that the body can handle.
Extremum
Sure, think of it like this: probability of a successful stunt is P = 1 – (risk factor)^n, where n is the number of failure points you’re willing to tolerate. Pick the n that makes P just above your comfort threshold, then call it a day. If you’re still uneasy, add a safety margin, otherwise you’re already in the burnout zone.
Dirk
Your equation is clean, but it assumes the risk factor is constant, which it isn’t. In reality each failure point can change the odds, so treat it as a dynamic system rather than a static one.
Extremum
Yeah, the risk factor is a moving target. Treat each failure point as a node in a graph where the weight changes with fatigue, temperature, wind, that kind of stuff. Then run a quick Monte‑Carlo on the fly to see the expected probability. That’s how you keep the math fresh while still feeling the edge.
Dirk
Running a quick Monte‑Carlo on the fly is fine if you have the compute budget, but remember the weights change fast—cache the latest values and update only the affected nodes. That way you keep the math current without burning through resources.
Extremum
Nice tweak—think of it as a live‑action spreadsheet that only recalculates the cells you actually touch. Keep the engine humming and you’ll still have time to grab that adrenaline rush before the numbers hit you.