Risk is a function of probability times impact, and reward is the upside if you win that probability. A bluff is just a high‑variance play: you bet on a hand that’s likely weak but can force a fold. In business you’d model it the same way – estimate the chance the market or competitor will fold, multiply by the gain, then subtract the cost of being called. If the math favors you, go for it; if not, fold and save the resources for a lower‑variance win.

I’ll keep the math on the table, but I do bring a quick read of the room into the equation. Balance is the key; data guides the structure, instinct trims the edges. If the numbers don’t line up, I’ll let the gut win—just make sure it’s a calculated gut, not a wild guess.