IronVeil & Doubt
IronVeil IronVeil
Doubt Doubt
IronVeil IronVeil
I’ve been thinking a lot about how you choose to act when the stakes are high and the future is unclear. What do you say is the difference between a well‑planned move and a gut instinct?
Doubt Doubt
I think a well‑planned move is when you can trace every step back to data or logic, while a gut instinct is a single flash that feels right even when the evidence is missing. The trick is deciding when you’re missing enough facts that a quick intuition might actually be the only honest option. But even then, I’d still want to test that instinct with a tiny experiment before fully committing.
IronVeil IronVeil
You’re right about the logic side, but in the field you don’t always get time for experiments. Decide the cutoff: if the data is below 60 percent confidence, then you act. If it’s higher, you wait. That’s discipline, not hesitation.
Doubt Doubt
That 60‑percent line feels arbitrary to me. What if the “missing” 40 % is the most critical piece of evidence? I’d still be worried that the cut‑off is just a convenient excuse to act. Maybe we need to look at how the stakes weigh against that confidence, not a hard line.