Aviato & Curt
Curt
Aviato, let’s get straight to the numbers on that new drone prototype—what’s the projected ROI and break‑even point?
Aviato
Sure thing—our latest model should hit a 30% ROI in the first year, and we’re looking at a break‑even around the 7‑month mark if we hit the projected sales volume.
Curt
Got it—30% ROI and a 7‑month break‑even are solid, but what’s the underlying cost structure and sales assumption driving those figures?
Aviato
Yeah, so we’re talking about about a $10k unit price. Cost of goods is roughly $6.5k – that’s the parts, the frame, the battery, the AI chips, and a small margin for the assembly line. Then we have $1k of per‑unit marketing, $0.5k in shipping, and a $0.4k support overhead. That gives us a gross margin of about $3.1k per drone. On the sales side we’re assuming we ship 800 units in the first six months, which pulls the revenue up to $8 million. With the operating costs – office, R&D, regulatory fees – hovering around $2.2 million, that puts us at a net profit of roughly $5.9 million in that period. The 30% ROI and 7‑month break‑even come from that math.
Curt
Numbers look tight; next step is to verify shipping volume assumptions—do we have a contract pipeline that guarantees 800 units in six months, or are we still in exploratory sales? Also, have we factored in any potential cost escalation for AI chips?
Aviato
We’ve already inked a few letter‑of‑intent deals with two major logistics firms that lock in 400 units each for the first six months—so that’s 800 units guaranteed, plus a pipeline of three more clients we’re courting that could bump us to 1,000 by month nine. As for the AI chips, the current fab partners gave us a price‑lock on 2025 rates, but there’s always a 5‑10% bump risk if supply chain hiccups hit; we’ve set aside a contingency buffer in the cap‑ex so we’re not caught flat‑footed if that happens.
Curt
Letter‑of‑intent for 800 units is solid, and a 5–10% chip price risk with a contingency buffer covers the worst case. I’ll need the exact cost‑plus figure for the 1,000‑unit scenario and the projected net profit if we hit that volume, just to confirm the 30% ROI holds.