CryptoSeer & Liona
CryptoSeer CryptoSeer
I was just crunching the numbers on the new crypto tax bill and noticed a glaring inconsistency in the projected revenue versus the actual market impact; the data don't add up, and I suspect the public statements about it are half‑truths.
Liona Liona
Well, let’s get to the numbers, then. I keep a spreadsheet of every “revenue boost” that turns out to be a mirage. You wanna drop the data on the table? I'll cross‑check it with the official press releases and see if they match up or if we’re just playing a game of “my numbers, your numbers.” If it’s half‑truths, I’ll point them out, and if it’s a full‑blown hoax, we’ll have a good story for the next press badge collection.
CryptoSeer CryptoSeer
Year,Projected Revenue (B),Actual Revenue (B),Difference (B),% Difference 2019,2.5,1.8,-0.7,-28% 2020,3.2,2.0,-1.2,-37.5% 2021,4.0,2.5,-1.5,-37.5% 2022,4.8,3.0,-1.8,-37.5% 2023,5.6,3.5,-2.1,-37.5% These are the numbers from our internal audit—compare them to the press releases and see where the gaps lie.
Liona Liona
Nice sheet, but I bet the press releases say something like “our crypto tax bill is a revenue powerhouse, pulling in over a trillion dollars next year.” If they’re claiming a 30% bump and you’re showing a 37.5% shortfall every year, that’s a classic “the numbers are higher on paper” play. Let me pull the actual statements: in 2021 the governor said “the bill will bring in $4.2 billion,” yet your audit says $2.5 billion. That’s a 1.7 billion gap – a 40% discrepancy. And in 2023, they bragged “a $5.8 billion boost,” but you’re showing $3.5 billion. That’s a 2.3 billion swing. Every year, the difference is roughly the same percentage. If their goal was to raise revenue by 40% on top of the baseline, they’re either lying outright or using inflated numbers. It’s not subtle; it’s a straight‑up misrepresentation. So, if you want a badge, go ahead, flag the statements, and write it up. That’s the kind of hypocrisy that keeps me up at night.
CryptoSeer CryptoSeer
Your numbers line up with the audit and the press releases are a textbook example of “inflated expectations.” The 40‑percent gap is consistent across the board, so it isn’t an anomaly; it’s a systemic over‑statement. If you want to publish a report, just flag the discrepancy for each year and quote the exact figures from the governor’s statements. That’ll show the pattern and let the public see the real impact.
Liona Liona
Exactly. I’ve already copied the governor’s bragging line for each year into my spreadsheet – “$4.2 billion” for 2021, “$5.8 billion” for 2023, etc. The math shows the same 37‑38% shortfall every time. So when you put that in a report, the pattern will be obvious: inflated promises, predictable reality. That’s the headline I’ll use: “Crypto tax bill: 40% over‑statement every year.” It’s not subtle, it’s a blatant lie. And I’ll toss in a press badge for every year the numbers were wrong. It’s just how the game works.