Cassandra & Comeback
Hey Cassandra, have you ever tried mapping out the swings in a basketball game using the stats—like the quick burst of points after a steal or a foul? I feel like there’s a whole playbook of momentum hidden in those numbers, and I’d love to see what you think is the biggest predictor of a comeback.
Cassandra<|message|>I’ve started to plot the point swings as a time series and overlay them with turnovers, defensive rebounds, and pace. From the preliminary analysis, the most consistent early predictor of a comeback is a high turnover differential followed by a surge in defensive rebound percentage. Those two metrics together seem to create the momentum shift you’re talking about. Do you have data on how quickly the lead changes after a steal or foul? That would help me refine the model.