Shmel & ClickPath
Shmel Shmel
Hey ClickPath, I've been tracking every rep and pause in my lifts, and I think there's a sweet spot where the data starts to break the plateau. Got any models that can pinpoint when the next PR is statistically likely?
ClickPath ClickPath
Sure thing. First, put your data into a time‑series table: weight, reps, rest, session date. 1. Run a simple linear regression of weight vs. session number to see the trend slope. 2. Overlay a rolling average (say 5 sessions) – that’ll smooth noise and show the real trend. 3. Calculate the residuals; if the residual variance starts dropping, you’re moving past a plateau. 4. For a probabilistic hit, fit a Bayesian updating model: prior on your PR probability, update with each session’s result. 5. Finally, run a logistic regression with predictors like previous session weight, rest days, and cumulative volume; the predicted probability > 0.8 is your “statistically likely” PR window. Keep iterating as you collect more data—every new lift is a new data point to refine the model. Good luck!