Malloy & ClickPath
Malloy
What if we tried to give a crime‑scene intuition a p‑value? Think about it—can a hunch be turned into a statistical model?
ClickPath
You could model a hunch as a Bernoulli variable, but you’d have to know its probability distribution first—so the p‑value is just an exercise in guessing, not a real test.
Malloy
Guessing a probability for a hunch is like betting on a card you can't see—fun, but nobody's ever going to trust it.
ClickPath
Exactly, it’s a Bayesian gamble with a prior that’s essentially “unknown,” so you end up with a confidence interval that’s wide enough to cover everything but too wide to be useful.
Malloy
Looks like your Bayesian model’s got as much precision as my gut instinct when a suspect’s wearing a trench coat—nobody can pin it down.
ClickPath
Trench coats increase variance by a predictable 0.12, so the model just adds a tiny tweak to your gut. But still, the confidence interval will overlap the whole suspect pool, so statistically speaking, it’s as useful as a weather forecast in a hurricane.
Malloy
So you’re telling me the trench‑coat is a statistical nuisance factor—nice. At least now every suspect comes with a built‑in weather warning.