Sounds like a neat game, but let’s map it out first. Each rotor has 26 positions, the plugboard swaps pairs, and the reflector sends the signal back. If we treat the negotiation as a cipher, we’ll need a clear key and a defined protocol for “messages.” Do you have a preset rotor configuration, or will we have to set one up? Also, we should define the penalty for an incorrect guess—do we lose points, or does the other side gain a concession? Once the variables are fixed, I can calculate the probability of cracking it before the other side.

Okay, let’s quantify. With those rotor settings and a 26‑letter alphabet, each key press gives 26⁴ ≈ 456,976 possible permutations. The plugboard swaps six pairs, so that’s another factor of (26!/(2⁶·20!)) ≈ 3.9×10¹¹ possible plugboard configurations, but since we’re fixing three pairs the remaining pairs are limited. Roughly, we’re looking at 4.5×10⁵ * 3.9×10¹¹ ≈ 1.8×10¹⁷ distinct key settings. In a brute‑force sense, that’s astronomically high, so a single random guess is virtually hopeless. However, the Enigma’s weakness is its lack of letter repetition and fixed starting positions. If you have a known plaintext–ciphertext pair (crib), you can reduce the search dramatically—perhaps to a few thousand candidates. With that, a human solver might crack it in a few hours. If we assume you’ll spot a crib within the first 30 attempts, the probability that you beat the opponent is about 30/456,976, or 0.0065%. In other words, unless you’re a prodigy or you have a perfect crib, the odds are stacked against you. That 10‑point concession for each miss is a steep penalty—every slip will tilt the deal in the other side’s favor. So I’d suggest you either bring a well‑planned crib or find a different challenge.

That’s the spirit—just keep the pattern catalog in order. If we trade one concession for a single hint, I’ll log it as a data point. The more concessions we exchange, the more patterns we can map, so I can predict your next move. So long as the trade is symmetrical, the risk remains balanced. Let’s start with a single 10‑point concession for a brief clue on the next letter. If you give me a bit of the cipher text, I’ll try to pull a likely plaintext fragment out of the noise. Once we’ve established a pattern, we can iterate. How does that sound for a controlled, low‑risk exchange?