Quantify & AuricShade
Hey Auric, I’ve been mapping the adoption curves for green tech startups and thinking we could forecast the next market shift with a solid predictive model. Got any data-driven insights that could back that up?
Sure thing. The classic S‑curve still holds for green tech, but the inflection point is shifting because of policy and cost trends. For solar, the global PV capacity hit 700 GW in 2023 and the annual growth rate is now around 30 % – that's far above the 10‑15 % you see in mature tech. Batteries are similar; the global lithium‑ion capacity is projected to double by 2030, driven by EV mandates in Europe and China.
If you run a regression on the cost curves for solar and batteries, the slope has flattened in the last two years, meaning cost declines are slowing. That’s a signal that the market is approaching saturation in those segments. What’s new is the rapid rise in hydrogen and green ammonia – they’re still under 1 % of global energy but are growing at 50 % CAGR. The key takeaway: target the hydrogen sector now, or bet on a breakthrough that could break the current cost plateau. Keep an eye on policy rollouts in the EU and US; those will shift the adoption curve forward.