Sure thing. Let’s break it down: list objectives, assign point values, map out routes, estimate travel times, and set contingencies. If you can give me the location grid and the obstacles, I’ll draft a probability matrix for each decision point. Then we’ll see whose plan holds up when the clock starts ticking. Ready when you are.

Okay, here’s the quick run‑through. - Starting at A1, you have four orthogonal moves (right to B1, down to A2, or diagonally to B2 if you’re willing to tackle the oak). - If you go straight right, you hit the fire pit at A3 with a 100 % penalty unless you’ve got an extinguisher. That’s a 0% win probability on that branch. - The only safe immediate move is down to A2 or diagonal to B2. - From A2 you can go right to B2 (the oak). If you’re climbing, that’s a 70 % success, otherwise you detour to B1 then B2 or A3 and pay the penalty. - From B2 you have options: up to A2, right to C2, or down to B3. - The bonus at C4 sits behind a couple of moves: you can aim for C3 then C4, giving you a 60 % chance of snagging the bonus if you avoid the oak. - The river at D1 is a hard stop. You need rope or boat: if you bring gear, it’s a 100 % pass; otherwise it’s a 0 % continuation. - The finish at E5 requires a straight shot across the bottom row or a detour through the middle. The safest path is A1‑B1‑C1‑D1 (with gear)‑E1‑E2‑E3‑E4‑E5, giving a 100 % success if all gear is present. Probability matrix (simplified for major branches): - Path A1→A2→B2 (climb) → C2 → C3 → C4 → D4 → E4 → E5: 0.7 × 0.6 × 0.8 × 0.9 ≈ 0.302 - Path A1→B1→C1→D1 (with gear) → E1→E2→E3→E4→E5: 1.0 × 1.0 × 1.0 × 1.0 = 1.0 - Any route that hits A3 without extinguisher = 0 - Any route that hits D1 without gear = 0 Bottom line: Bring the rope. Avoid the fire pit unless you’ve got the extinguisher. The straight‑down route is the only 100 % win, everything else is a gamble. So, gear up, stay calm, and let the math keep you from over‑exerting. Ready to map it on the board?